May 2026
Mapping Provincial Heterogeneity in the Philippines: A Cluster Analysis of Climate and Macroeconomic Indicators
Provincial heterogeneity in the Philippines is examined by integrating climate, macroeconomic, and fiscal indicators within a unified framework. Moving beyond regression-based approaches, k-means clustering is applied to identify natural groupings of provinces based on combined climate-real-fiscal (CRF) characteristics. Utilizing satellite-derived climate data and administrative economic and fiscal datasets, the analysis reveals a clear core-periphery structure. Metropolitan Manila emerges as a highly urbanized, service-driven, and fiscally dominant outlier, while the rest of the country divides into (1) warmer, transitioning provinces with emerging diversification and (2) cooler, wetter, agriculture-dependent provinces with higher climate exposure and weaker fiscal capacity.